Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 25, 10:30 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors · Conference game

LineDEN -2.5no move

Total240.5no move

Season records: Nuggets and Warriors
DEN	This season	GS
3-2	Record	4-3
2-3	ATS	5-2
3-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 118–117 · win probability GS 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

DEN -2.5

no move since the open

Total

240.5

model 235.2 · Under by 5.5

Model edge

GS by 4

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

DEN 2, GS 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

GS offense vs DEN defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, GS 28.8. Allowed: DEN 21.5, GS 27.3

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, GS 70.4%

DENSmall

DEN offense vs GS defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, GS 16.7%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, GS 17.6%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 40.9% and 47.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of under 3	379	51%	47%	49%
Conference games at this spread	577	49%	44%	45%
Games with a total of 240 to 244.5	281	65%	48%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	2-2
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; GS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs IND	W135–120WO
Dec 28	vs MIN	L98–110
Dec 31	@ MIN	L98–110

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs MIN	W119–114WO
Dec 28	@ PHX	L122–131WO
Dec 30	vs HOU	L116–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

DEN 15–9 GSDEN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · DEN 11-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	GS 134 @ DEN 114	DEN -6.5	GS W
Mar 29, 2025-26	GS 93 @ DEN 116	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Feb 22, 2025-26	DEN 117 @ GS 128	GS +6.5	GS W
Nov 7, 2025-26	GS 104 @ DEN 129	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Oct 23, 2025-26	DEN 131 @ GS 137	GS -1.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 2, Warriors 1, even 2

NuggetsBetterWarriors

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

GSSmall

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

NuggetsBetterWarriors

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENSmall

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

GSSmall

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENSmall

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

GS4.1 #24

DEN		GS
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.17 #3
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
37.4 #7	3-point %	40.0 #2
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.1 #11
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Warriors

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Warriors