Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Grizzlies
TOR	This season	MEM
3-3	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	6-0
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 116–113 · win probability TOR 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

TOR 1, MEM 4 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, MEM 15.7%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MEM offense vs TOR defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, MEM 25.3. Allowed: TOR 41.5, MEM 31.4

Even

TOR offense vs MEM defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, MEM 75.0%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: TOR away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	@ ORL	L114–121LO
Dec 28	vs NO	W119–106WU
Dec 30	vs WSH	W112–102WU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	@ LAC	L120–123WO
Dec 27	@ LAL	L114–120LU
Dec 29	vs SA	L98–123LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 MEMSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · TOR 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	TOR 128 @ MEM 96	MEM +14.5	TOR W
Nov 2, 2025-26	MEM 104 @ TOR 117	TOR -4.5	TOR W
Feb 5, 2024-25	MEM 138 @ TOR 107	TOR +9.5	MEM W
Dec 26, 2024-25	TOR 126 @ MEM 155	MEM -10.5	MEM W
Jan 22, 2023-24	MEM 108 @ TOR 100	TOR -7.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1

RaptorsBetterGrizzlies

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

MEMSmall

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

RaptorsBetterGrizzlies

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

MEM5.2 #11

TOR		MEM
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.16 #4
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
32.0 #24	3-point %	41.7 #1
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
29.2 #2	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
12.7 #2	Steals per game	6.3 #28
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Grizzlies