Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Bucks
MIN	This season	MIL
4-3	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 123–109 · win probability MIN 86%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, MIL 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs MIL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

MIL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 42.8% and 45.9% of their shots

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, MIL 12.2%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, MIL 23.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, MIL 29.7

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, MIL 74.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MIN away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	vs OKC	L103–116LU
Dec 27	@ GS	L114–119LO
Dec 28	@ DEN	W110–98

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ ORL	L91–130LO
Dec 29	@ OKC	W110–93WU
Dec 31	@ ATL	L99–122LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 5–5 MILSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 13, 2025-26	MIN 139 @ MIL 106	MIL -1.5	MIN W
Dec 21, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ MIN 103	MIN -12.5	MIL W
Apr 8, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ MIL 110	MIL +6.5	MIL W
Feb 12, 2024-25	MIL 103 @ MIN 101	MIN -9.5	MIL W
Feb 23, 2023-24	MIL 112 @ MIN 107	MIN -4.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 5, Bucks 0, even 0

TimberwolvesBetterBucks

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINBig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

TimberwolvesBetterBucks

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINSmall

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

MIL4.0 #27

MIN		MIL
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.07 #20
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
37.6 #6	3-point %	33.9 #21
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
27.3 #11	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
9.0 #13	Steals per game	5.7 #30
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Bucks

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Bucks

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Bucks