Utah Jazz at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Knicks
UTAH	This season	NY
1-5	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 120–106 · win probability NY 84%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

UTAH 0, NY 6 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

UTAH offense vs NY defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, NY 78.7%

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.2% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, NY 15.2%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

NYSmall

NY offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, NY 24.5. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, NY 25.9

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	vs IND	W131–122WO
Dec 27	@ SAC	L111–116LU
Dec 30	vs NY	L117–134LO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	vs SA	W94–90WU
Dec 27	vs BKN	W93–92LU
Dec 30	@ UTAH	W134–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 4–6 NYNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 3 meetings · UTAH 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2025-26	NY 134 @ UTAH 117	UTAH +13.5	NY W
Dec 5, 2025-26	UTAH 112 @ NY 146	NY -16.5	NY W
Jan 1, 2024-25	UTAH 103 @ NY 119	NY -11.5	NY W
Nov 23, 2024-25	NY 106 @ UTAH 121	UTAH +8.5	UTAH W
Jan 30, 2023-24	UTAH 103 @ NY 118	NY -2.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Knicks 4, even 0

JazzBetterKnicks

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

NYBig

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

JazzBetterKnicks

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

Even

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

NYSmall

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

NYSmall

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

NY4.0 #28

UTAH		NY
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.05 #24
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
32.6 #23	3-point %	35.2 #13
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
26.2 #19	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
6.2 #29	Steals per game	7.3 #23
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Knicks