Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Heat
CHI	This season	MIA
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 128–117 · win probability MIA 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 244.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

CHI 2, MIA 5 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs CHI defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHIBig

CHI offense vs MIA defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, MIA 15.4%

MIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

MIASmall

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 47.9% and 41.7% of their shots

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, CHI 1-3 away

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, MIA 72.3%

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, MIA 27.3. Allowed: CHI 33.5, MIA 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHI away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	vs DET	L110–126LO
Dec 29	@ ATL	W126–123WU
Dec 30	vs BOS	L111–125WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	@ BOS	L129–147LO
Dec 27	vs CHA	L110–115LU
Dec 29	@ DAL	L109–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

CHI 9–12 MIAMIA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · CHI 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	CHI 91 @ MIA 134	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Jan 31, 2025-26	CHI 125 @ MIA 118	MIA -5.5	CHI W
Jan 29, 2025-26	MIA 116 @ CHI 113	CHI +2.5	MIA W
Nov 21, 2025-26	MIA 143 @ CHI 107	CHI -2.5	MIA W
Apr 16, 2024-25	MIA 109 @ CHI 90	CHI -1.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Heat 3, even 1

BullsBetterHeat

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

Even

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

MIABig

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

BullsBetterHeat

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

MIA5.0 #13

CHI		MIA
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.11 #14
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
28.1 #30	3-point %	34.1 #19
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
24.3 #25	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
8.7 #17	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Heat