Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 22, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Wizards
TOR	This season	WSH
3-3	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–111 · win probability TOR 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOR 4, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, WSH 34.2. Allowed: TOR 41.5, WSH 21.8

TORBig

WSH offense vs TOR defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, WSH 13.3%

TORSmall

TOR offense vs WSH defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 37.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ MEM	W128–96WU
Dec 26	@ ORL	L114–121LO
Dec 28	vs NO	W119–106WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs CLE	L111–121LU
Dec 26	vs POR	L88–123LU
Dec 27	@ CLE	L111–121LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

TOR 14–5 WSHTOR leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · TOR 12-6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	TOR 112 @ WSH 102	WSH +9.5	TOR W
Feb 28, 2025-26	TOR 134 @ WSH 125	WSH +13.5	WSH W
Dec 26, 2025-26	TOR 117 @ WSH 138	WSH +8.5	WSH W
Nov 21, 2025-26	WSH 110 @ TOR 140	TOR -14.5	TOR W
Mar 24, 2024-25	TOR 112 @ WSH 104	WSH -1.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 2, Wizards 1, even 2

RaptorsBetterWizards

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

WSHSmall

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

RaptorsBetterWizards

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

WSH5.3 #9

TOR		WSH
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.08 #19
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
32.0 #24	3-point %	29.3 #29
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
29.2 #2	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
12.7 #2	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Wizards

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Wizards

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Wizards