Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 26, 1:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Trail Blazers and Wizards
POR	This season	WSH
4-1	Record	3-3
3-2	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–111 · win probability POR 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 5, WSH 1 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, WSH 68.0%

PORBig

WSH offense vs POR defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

POR offense vs WSH defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 51.5% and 37.6% of their shots

PORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, POR 3-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: POR 27.8, WSH 21.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: POR 14.8%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: POR away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ DET	L102–110LU
Dec 29	vs BKN	W134–99WO
Jan 2	vs BOS	L94–102WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ CLE	L111–121LU
Dec 30	@ TOR	L102–112LU
Jan 1	vs SA	L113–124WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

POR 7–3 WSHPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	WSH 88 @ POR 123	POR -16.5	POR W
Jan 27, 2025-26	POR 111 @ WSH 115	WSH +7.5	WSH W
Mar 17, 2024-25	WSH 97 @ POR 112	POR -5.5	POR W
Feb 26, 2024-25	POR 129 @ WSH 121	WSH +6.5	POR W
Apr 5, 2023-24	POR 108 @ WSH 102	WSH -2.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Wizards 0, even 3

Trail BlazersBetterWizards

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

PORBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

PORSmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

Even

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

Trail BlazersBetterWizards

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

PORBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

PORBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

WSH5.3 #9

POR		WSH
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.08 #19
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.3 #12	3-point %	29.3 #29
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.2 #17	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
8.6 #18	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers @ Wizards

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Wizards

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Wizards