Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Wizards
CLE	This season	WSH
4-2	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 120–113 · win probability CLE 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 4, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs WSH defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, WSH 68.0%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 43.6% and 37.6% of their shots

CLESmall

WSH offense vs CLE defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: CLE 23.2, WSH 21.8

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs WSH	W121–111WU
Dec 28	@ BOS	L98–109LU
Dec 31	vs LAC	W124–91WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	vs POR	L88–123LU
Dec 27	@ CLE	L111–121LU
Dec 30	@ TOR	L102–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CLE 18–2 WSHCLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 17 meetings · CLE 13-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	WSH 111 @ CLE 121	CLE -9.5	CLE W
Apr 12, 2025-26	WSH 117 @ CLE 130	CLE -10.5	CLE W
Feb 11, 2025-26	WSH 113 @ CLE 138	CLE -17.5	CLE W
Dec 12, 2025-26	CLE 130 @ WSH 126	WSH +16.5	WSH W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CLE 148 @ WSH 115	WSH +13.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Wizards 0, even 3

CavaliersBetterWizards

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLESmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

Even

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

CavaliersBetterWizards

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

WSH5.3 #9

CLE		WSH
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.08 #19
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
37.0 #8	3-point %	29.3 #29
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
28.7 #4	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
7.8 #22	Steals per game	7.2 #24
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Wizards

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Wizards

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Wizards