Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Trail Blazers and Celtics
POR	This season	BOS
4-1	Record	5-1
3-2	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 114–109 · win probability BOS 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

POR 3, BOS 3 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, BOS 68.4%

PORSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: POR 27.8, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: POR 14.8%, BOS 17.8%

BOSSmall

POR offense vs BOS defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, POR 3-0 away

PORSmall

BOS offense vs POR defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 51.5% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: POR away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	@ WSH	W123–88WU
Dec 27	@ DET	L102–110LU
Dec 29	vs BKN	W134–99WO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	vs MIA	W147–129WO
Dec 28	vs CLE	W109–98WU
Dec 30	@ CHI	W125–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

POR 2–8 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 26, 2025-26	POR 94 @ BOS 102	BOS -8.5	POR W
Dec 28, 2025-26	BOS 108 @ POR 114	POR +6.5	POR W
Mar 23, 2024-25	BOS 129 @ POR 116	POR +6.5	BOS W
Mar 5, 2024-25	POR 118 @ BOS 128	BOS -8.5	BOS W
Apr 7, 2023-24	POR 107 @ BOS 124	BOS -16.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 0, Celtics 2, even 3

Trail BlazersBetterCeltics

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

BOSSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

Even

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

Trail BlazersBetterCeltics

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

BOSSmall

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

BOS4.0 #25

POR		BOS
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.15 #6
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
35.3 #12	3-point %	35.5 #10
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
26.2 #17	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
8.6 #18	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers @ Celtics

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Celtics