Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Cavaliers
UTAH	This season	CLE
1-5	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 124–111 · win probability CLE 83%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

UTAH 0, CLE 6 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.6% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, CLE 14.1%

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, CLE 28.9. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, CLE 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, CLE 73.9%

Even

UTAH offense vs CLE defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ NY	L117–134LO
Dec 26	vs IND	W131–122WO
Dec 27	@ SAC	L111–116LU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	vs NY	L93–130LO
Dec 23	@ WSH	W121–111WU
Dec 27	vs WSH	W121–111WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 3–7 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	CLE 122 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +16.5	UTAH W
Jan 12, 2025-26	UTAH 123 @ CLE 112	CLE -13.5	UTAH W
Mar 23, 2024-25	CLE 120 @ UTAH 91	UTAH +16.5	CLE W
Dec 23, 2024-25	UTAH 113 @ CLE 124	CLE -14.5	UTAH W
Apr 2, 2023-24	CLE 129 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +9.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Cavaliers 4, even 0

JazzBetterCavaliers

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

CLEBig

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

JazzBetterCavaliers

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

CLESmall

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

CLESmall

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

CLE6.3 #6

UTAH		CLE
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.14 #7
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
32.6 #23	3-point %	37.0 #8
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
26.2 #19	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
6.2 #29	Steals per game	7.8 #22
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Cavaliers