New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 21, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Cavaliers
NY	This season	CLE
2-4	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 113–112 · win probability CLE 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

NY 1, CLE 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, CLE 73.9%

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, CLE 28.9. Allowed: NY 25.9, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 43.2% and 43.6% of their shots

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: NY 13.2%, CLE 14.1%

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

NY offense vs CLE defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

CLE offense vs NY defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs UTAH	W134–117WO
Dec 25	vs SA	W94–90WU
Dec 27	vs BKN	W93–92LU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ WSH	W121–111WU
Dec 27	vs WSH	W121–111WU
Dec 28	@ BOS	L98–109LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

NY 15–11 CLENY leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 4 meetings · NY 14-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 25, 2025-26	NY 130 @ CLE 93	CLE +2.5	NY W
May 23, 2025-26	NY 121 @ CLE 108	—	—
May 21, 2025-26	CLE 93 @ NY 109	NY -5.5	NY W
May 19, 2025-26	CLE 104 @ NY 115	NY -6.5	NY W
Feb 24, 2025-26	NY 94 @ CLE 109	CLE -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Knicks 2, Cavaliers 2, even 1

KnicksBetterCavaliers

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

CLESmall

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

CLESmall

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

KnicksBetterCavaliers

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

Even

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

CLE6.3 #6

NY		CLE
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
35.2 #13	3-point %	37.0 #8
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
26.2 #18	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
7.3 #23	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Cavaliers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Cavaliers