Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 21, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Magic
SAC	This season	ORL
0-6	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	2-4
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 122–110 · win probability ORL 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 232.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

SAC 2, ORL 6 · 2026-27 so far

ORLBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 38.0% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLBig

SAC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, ORL 31.7. Allowed: SAC 31.2, ORL 29.8

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, ORL 68.9%

SACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, ORL 13.6%

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: SAC away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs DAL	W130–121WO
Dec 27	vs UTAH	W116–111WU
Dec 29	vs PHI	L118–139LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs CHA	W121–90WU
Dec 26	vs TOR	W121–114WO
Dec 27	vs MIL	W130–91WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 6–4 ORLSAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 4 meetings · SAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 26, 2025-26	SAC 117 @ ORL 121	ORL -15.5	SAC W
Feb 19, 2025-26	ORL 131 @ SAC 94	SAC +8.5	ORL W
Mar 29, 2024-25	SAC 91 @ ORL 121	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Feb 5, 2024-25	ORL 130 @ SAC 111	SAC -3.5	ORL W
Mar 23, 2023-24	SAC 109 @ ORL 107	ORL -2.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 1, Magic 4, even 0

KingsBetterMagic

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

ORLBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

SACSmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

ORLSmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

ORLSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

KingsBetterMagic

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

ORLBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

ORLSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

ORLBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

SAC

ORL

Scoring

109.3Points per game107.7

1.03Points per possession1.07

106.0Pace (possessions)101.9

Shooting

51.0Effective FG%53.4

30.43-point %35.4

38.03-point attempt rate46.5

26.4Free throw rate31.7

Possessions

15.9Turnover rate17.0

22.9Offensive rebound rate23.4

24.5Assists per game26.3

Defense

128.3Points allowed116.7

1.21Points allowed per possession1.13

60.4Opponent effective FG%53.0

39.2Opponent 3-point %34.6

14.6Turnovers forced13.6

73.7Defensive rebound rate68.9

8.0Steals per game7.0

2.3Blocks per game4.2

SAC		ORL
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.07 #21
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.4 #11
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
8.0 #21	Steals per game	7.0 #26
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Magic

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Magic