Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mavericks and Kings
DAL	This season	SAC
4-2	Record	0-6
4-2	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 122–113 · win probability DAL 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 5, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

DALBig

Three-pointers

DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.0% of their shots

DALBig

DAL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

DALBig

SAC offense vs DAL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

DALBig

Recent form

Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Context

Schedule so far

DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, DAL 2-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, SAC 14.6%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, SAC 26.4. Allowed: DAL 27.2, SAC 31.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DAL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	vs PHX	L107–112WU
Dec 29	vs MIA	W113–109WU
Jan 1	@ HOU	W116–111WO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs UTAH	W116–111WU
Dec 29	vs PHI	L118–139LO
Dec 31	vs BKN	L99–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DAL 9–9 SACSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · DAL 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	SAC 130 @ DAL 121	DAL -7.5	SAC W
Jan 6, 2025-26	DAL 100 @ SAC 98	SAC +4.5	SAC W
Dec 27, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ SAC 113	SAC +2.5	SAC W
Apr 16, 2024-25	DAL 120 @ SAC 106	SAC -5.5	DAL W
Mar 3, 2024-25	SAC 122 @ DAL 98	DAL +1.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 3, Kings 0, even 2

MavericksBetterKings

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

Even

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

DALBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

Even

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

DALBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

DALSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

MavericksBetterKings

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

DALBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

DALBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

DALBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

DALBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAL betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAL114.3 #14

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

DAL1.12 #11

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

DAL102.8 #18

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAL56.9 #2

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

DAL35.1 #14

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

DAL42.1 #18

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

DAL21.4 #29

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAL16.8 #23

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

DAL27.8 #13

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

DAL27.0 #12

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

DAL111.8 #14

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

DAL1.08 #13

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

DAL51.3 #9

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

DAL29.7 #2

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

DAL14.5 #24

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

DAL69.4 #25

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

DAL8.8 #16

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

DAL6.8 #2

SAC2.3 #30

DAL		SAC
Scoring
114.3 #14	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.12 #11	Points per possession	1.03 #28
102.8 #18	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
56.9 #2	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.1 #14	3-point %	30.4 #27
42.1 #18	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
21.4 #29	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
16.8 #23	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
27.8 #13	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
27.0 #12	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
111.8 #14	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.08 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
51.3 #9	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
29.7 #2	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
14.5 #24	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
69.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
8.8 #16	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.8 #2	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks @ Kings

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Mavericks

Kings

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mavericks

Kings