Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 21, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Hornets
PHI	This season	CHA
6-1	Record	3-4
4-3	ATS	3-4
2-5	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 107–106 · win probability PHI 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 212.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 5, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, CHA 76.6%

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, CHA 14.5%

PHIBig

CHA offense vs PHI defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

PHI offense vs CHA defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 39.5% and 50.8% of their shots

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, CHA 18.9. Allowed: PHI 28.5, CHA 28.4

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs HOU	L102–113LU
Dec 25	@ LAL	L115–119LU
Dec 27	@ LAC	W128–113WO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ ORL	L90–121LU
Dec 26	@ ATL	L81–128LU
Dec 27	@ MIA	W115–110WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

PHI 16–3 CHAPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 9-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	PHI 109 @ CHA 104	CHA +1.5	PHI W
Mar 28, 2025-26	PHI 118 @ CHA 114	CHA -6.5	PHI W
Jan 26, 2025-26	PHI 93 @ CHA 130	CHA -1.5	CHA W
Oct 25, 2025-26	CHA 121 @ PHI 125	PHI -4.5	CHA W
Dec 20, 2024-25	CHA 98 @ PHI 108	PHI -13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Hornets 1, even 1

76ersBetterHornets

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

CHASmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

76ersBetterHornets

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

CHA5.0 #15

PHI		CHA
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.06 #22	Points per possession	0.99 #30
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
34.0 #20	3-point %	29.6 #28
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
25.1 #22	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.6 #7	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Hornets

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Hornets

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Hornets