Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Heat
SAC	This season	MIA
0-6	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	2-4
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 127–114 · win probability MIA 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

SAC 0, MIA 5 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs SAC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, MIA 15.4%

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, MIA 27.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, MIA 23.2

MIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 38.0% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

SAC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, MIA 72.3%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: SAC away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ ORL	L117–121WO
Dec 23	vs DAL	W130–121WO
Dec 27	vs UTAH	W116–111WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	vs CHI	W134–91WU
Dec 23	vs CHI	W134–91WU
Dec 25	@ BOS	L129–147LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 5–5 MIASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 20, 2025-26	MIA 130 @ SAC 117	SAC +4.5	MIA W
Dec 6, 2025-26	SAC 127 @ MIA 111	MIA -8.5	SAC W
Jan 6, 2024-25	MIA 118 @ SAC 123	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Nov 4, 2024-25	SAC 111 @ MIA 110	MIA -0.5	SAC W
Feb 26, 2023-24	MIA 121 @ SAC 110	SAC -7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Heat 4, even 1

KingsBetterHeat

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

MIABig

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

MIABig

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

KingsBetterHeat

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

MIABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

MIA5.0 #13

SAC		MIA
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.11 #14
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
30.4 #27	3-point %	34.1 #19
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
24.5 #23	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
8.0 #21	Steals per game	8.3 #19
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Heat