Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Hawks
OKC	This season	ATL
4-2	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 113–113 · win probability ATL 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

OKC 3, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, ATL 23.4. Allowed: OKC 23.4, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 35.8% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, ATL 18.3%

OKCSmall

ATL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, ATL 70.9%

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

OKC offense vs ATL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 22	vs DET	W114–110LO
Dec 23	@ NO	W104–95LU
Dec 25	@ MIN	W116–103WU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs DET	W130–129WO
Dec 26	vs CHA	W128–81WU
Dec 27	@ SA	L98–126LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 6–4 ATLOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · OKC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2025-26	ATL 129 @ OKC 140	OKC -17.5	ATL W
Oct 25, 2025-26	OKC 117 @ ATL 100	ATL +8.5	OKC W
Feb 28, 2024-25	OKC 135 @ ATL 119	ATL +10.5	OKC W
Oct 27, 2024-25	ATL 104 @ OKC 128	OKC -10.5	OKC W
Jan 3, 2023-24	OKC 138 @ ATL 141	ATL -1.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 2, Hawks 2, even 1

ThunderBetterHawks

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

ATLBig

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ThunderBetterHawks

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCSmall

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

ATL3.7 #29

OKC		ATL
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
30.9 #26	3-point %	32.8 #22
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
21.7 #29	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.4 #8
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Hawks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Hawks

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Hawks