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NBA · Wed, Dec 23

Pistons @ Hawks

State Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game
#4DETPistons
@
#14ATLHawks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonATL
5-1Record3-4
5-1ATS3-4
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 114–111 · win probability DET 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 5, ATL 2 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: DET 28.1, ATL 32.1
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
DETBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
DETBig
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
ATLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: DET 17.1%, ATL 18.3%
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
ATL offense vs DET defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 44.7% of their shots
ATLSmall
Home court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, ATL 70.9%
Even
DET offense vs ATL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -2.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 113.6 · ATL 111.1
Win probability
DET 57%
1st half
Spread
DET -1.6
Total
112.7
Projected score
DET 57.1 · ATL 55.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 2, Hawks 1, even 2
PistonsBetterHawks
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
ATLSmall
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
Even
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
DETSmall
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
Even
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
PistonsBetterHawks
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Even
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETSmall
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETATL
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game116.3 #13
1.09 #18Points per possession1.10 #16
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)105.6 #7
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%52.6 #19
36.3 #93-point %32.8 #22
43.3 #133-point attempt rate44.7 #11
28.9 #14Free throw rate23.4 #26
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate13.8 #4
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate27.1 #18
26.7 #15Assists per game30.7 #1
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed115.4 #19
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.10 #17
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%54.5 #22
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %31.9 #7
17.1 #6Turnovers forced18.3 #2
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate70.9 #19
9.0 #12Steals per game9.4 #8
6.7 #4Blocks per game3.7 #29
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.