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NBA · Fri, Dec 18

Jazz @ Celtics

TD Garden · at Celtics
#27UTAHJazz
@
#6BOSCeltics
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAHThis seasonBOS
1-6Record5-2
1-6ATS3-4
2-5O/U2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 120–105 · win probability BOS 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

UTAH 1, BOS 7 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 1st-hardest schedule, BOS the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
BOSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 16.2%, BOS 15.1%. Forced: UTAH 13.0%, BOS 17.5%
BOSBig
UTAH offense vs BOS defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
BOSBig
BOS offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
BOSBig
Three-pointers
UTAH hits 32.9% and allows 37.2%; BOS hits 34.5% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 40.7% and 46.6% of their shots
BOSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 49.5 and allows 53.7; BOS 53.8 and allows 52.8
UTAHSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 26.1%, BOS 28.9%. Defensive: UTAH 77.6%, BOS 69.0%
BOSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 30.2, BOS 31.1. Allowed: UTAH 33.7, BOS 29.7
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), BOS 101.5 (22nd). Faster games mean more points
BOSSmall
Home court
BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, UTAH 0-2 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -12.8; BOS 2-3 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelBOS -15.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.1
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 104.7 · BOS 120.4
Win probability
BOS 87%
1st half
Spread
BOS -8.7
Total
112.8
Projected score
UTAH 52.1 · BOS 60.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model numbers › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Celtics 4, even 0
JazzBetterCeltics
G K. George19.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 7
BOSBig
G D. White11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 86
G D. Peterson13.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15
BOSBig
G J. Walsh4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
G A. Bailey12.1 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
BOSBig
F J. Tatum27 pts · 6 reb · 7.9 ast Score 86
F L. Markkanen16.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 93
UTAHSmall
C N. Queta9.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 61
C J. Hayes8.2 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 33
BOSSmall
C M. Robinson6.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 51
JazzBetterCeltics
UTAH offense21st of 30 · -2.0
BOSBig
BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -5.4
BOSBig
BOS offense16th of 30 · +0.1
Backcourt-20.8 · 3 players
BOSBig
Backcourt+15.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+13.8 · 2 players
BOSBig
Frontcourt+17.4 · 3 players
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
BOSBig
Bench+31.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jazz
Guards
K. George31 minD. Peterson30 minA. Bailey30 minI. Collier18 minJ. Okogie17 minS. Mykhailiuk16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh15 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes25 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
Celtics
Guards
D. White30 minJ. Walsh16 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman20 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez13 min
Forwards
J. Tatum35 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac3 minD. Mitchell2 min
Centers
N. Queta22 minM. Robinson19 minL. Garza12 min
Out
P. GeorgeDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
UTAHBOS
Scoring
107.0Points per game115.0
1.04Points per possession1.13
104.0Pace (possessions)101.5
Shooting
49.5Effective FG%53.8
32.93-point %34.5
40.73-point attempt rate46.6
30.2Free throw rate31.1
Possessions
16.2Turnover rate15.1
26.1Offensive rebound rate28.9
24.7Assists per game26.9
Defense
118.9Points allowed109.1
1.13Points allowed per possession1.08
53.7Opponent effective FG%52.8
37.2Opponent 3-point %34.6
13.0Turnovers forced17.5
77.6Defensive rebound rate69.0
6.6Steals per game8.7
6.6Blocks per game3.7
UTAHBOS
Scoring
107.0 #26Points per game115.0 #13
1.04 #27Points per possession1.13 #9
104.0 #12Pace (possessions)101.5 #22
Shooting
49.5 #27Effective FG%53.8 #14
32.9 #223-point %34.5 #17
40.7 #213-point attempt rate46.6 #7
30.2 #12Free throw rate31.1 #9
Possessions
16.2 #22Turnover rate15.1 #12
26.1 #21Offensive rebound rate28.9 #11
24.7 #24Assists per game26.9 #12
Defense
118.9 #24Points allowed109.1 #10
1.13 #23Points allowed per possession1.08 #12
53.7 #16Opponent effective FG%52.8 #12
37.2 #25Opponent 3-point %34.6 #12
13.0 #29Turnovers forced17.5 #5
77.6 #2Defensive rebound rate69.0 #27
6.6 #28Steals per game8.7 #14
6.6 #3Blocks per game3.7 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-6 overall · 1-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs97–119
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-2 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Rockets93–109
  • W@ Magic108–97
  • Wvs Bulls125–111
  • Wvs Nets125–124
  • Wvs Bulls134–99

A week or more of rest.