Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 18, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Nets
ORL	This season	BKN
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 115–109 · win probability ORL 66%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ORL 3, BKN 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORLBig

BKN offense vs ORL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, BKN 77.8%

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, BKN 15.9%

ORLSmall

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 46.5% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, BKN 32.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, BKN 33.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

ORL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: ORL away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	@ ATL	L125–132LO
Dec 21	vs SAC	W121–117LO
Dec 23	vs CHA	W121–90WU

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs WSH	W121–115WO
Dec 21	vs POR	L99–134LO
Dec 23	vs SA	L110–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

ORL 11–7 BKNORL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 9 meetings · ORL 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ ORL 118	ORL -9.5	ORL W
Jan 7, 2025-26	ORL 104 @ BKN 103	BKN +2.5	BKN W
Nov 14, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ ORL 105	ORL -14.5	BKN W
Dec 29, 2024-25	BKN 101 @ ORL 102	ORL -7.5	BKN W
Dec 1, 2024-25	ORL 100 @ BKN 92	BKN +6.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 3, Nets 1, even 1

MagicBetterNets

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

Even

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

ORLSmall

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

MagicBetterNets

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ORLBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

BKN4.7 #17

ORL		BKN
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
35.4 #11	3-point %	35.1 #15
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
26.3 #16	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Nets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Nets

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Nets