Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 19, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Hawks
ORL	This season	ATL
2-4	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 117–113 · win probability ATL 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ORL 2, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, ATL 18.3%

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, ATL 23.4. Allowed: ORL 29.8, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

ATL offense vs ORL defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, ATL 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

ORL offense vs ATL defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	vs SAC	W121–117LO
Dec 23	vs CHA	W121–90WU
Dec 26	vs TOR	W121–114WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs OKC	L129–140WO
Dec 23	vs DET	W130–129WO
Dec 26	vs CHA	W128–81WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

ORL 6–16 ATLATL leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 5 meetings · ORL 9-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	ATL 132 @ ORL 125	ORL -2.5	ATL W
Apr 1, 2025-26	ATL 130 @ ORL 101	ORL +2.5	ATL W
Mar 16, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 124	ATL -3.5	ATL W
Nov 4, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 127	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Oct 24, 2025-26	ATL 111 @ ORL 107	ORL -5.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Hawks 2, even 2

MagicBetterHawks

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

Even

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

MagicBetterHawks

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ATLSmall

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

ATL3.7 #29

ORL		ATL
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
35.4 #11	3-point %	32.8 #22
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
26.3 #16	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Hawks