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NBA · Sat, Dec 19

Trail Blazers @ Hornets

Spectrum Center · at Hornets
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#23CHAHornets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonCHA
4-1Record3-4
3-2ATS3-4
2-3O/U1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 111–106 · win probability POR 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 217.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 5, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
CHA offense vs POR defense
Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1
PORBig
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 51.5% and 50.8% of their shots
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: POR 27.8, CHA 28.4
PORBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: POR 14.8%, CHA 14.5%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
CHASmall
Home court
CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, POR 3-0 away
CHASmall
POR offense vs CHA defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
CHASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, CHA 76.6%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -5.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model217.6
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 111.4 · CHA 106.1
Win probability
POR 65%
1st half
Spread
POR -3.2
Total
109.3
Projected score
POR 56.3 · CHA 53.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Hornets 2, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterHornets
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORBig
G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
CHASmall
G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
Even
F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
CHASmall
F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PORBig
C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14
Trail BlazersBetterHornets
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Even
CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
PORBig
CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
PORBig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
PORBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench-5.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Hornets
Guards
D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew
Forwards
B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min
Centers
N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORCHA
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game98.3 #30
1.16 #5Points per possession0.99 #30
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)98.3 #30
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%48.4 #29
35.3 #123-point %29.6 #28
51.5 #13-point attempt rate50.8 #2
35.9 #3Free throw rate18.9 #30
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate18.8 #29
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate31.6 #4
26.2 #17Assists per game21.6 #30
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed106.4 #4
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.09 #15
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%53.1 #15
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %37.5 #24
14.8 #20Turnovers forced14.5 #23
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate76.6 #5
8.6 #18Steals per game7.1 #25
4.2 #21Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs 76ers104–109
  • L@ Wizards79–95
  • L@ Pistons89–97
  • Wvs Wizards110–103
  • Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.