Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 125–105 · win probability SA 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
MIL 0, SA 6 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs MIL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
SABigMIL offense vs SA defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, SA 13.1%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, SA 15.7%
SABigShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: MIL 29.7, SA 21.7
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 39.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, SA 75.8%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -19.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.7
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 105.2 · SA 124.5
Win probability
SA 92%
1st half
Spread
SA -10.8
Total
115.0
Projected score
MIL 52.1 · SA 62.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIL 5–5 SASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · MIL 3-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025-26 | SA 127 @ MIL 95 | MIL +17.5 | SA W |
| Jan 15, 2025-26 | MIL 101 @ SA 119 | SA -7.5 | SA W |
| Jan 31, 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ SA 144 | SA +2.5 | SA W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | SA 105 @ MIL 121 | MIL -4.5 | MIL W |
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | MIL 125 @ SA 121 | SA +11.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 0, Spurs 5, even 0
BucksBetterSpurs
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→SABig
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
→SASmall
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
→SABig
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
BucksBetterSpurs
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
→SABig
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17SA117.3 #12Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21SA53.3 #163-point %
MIL33.9 #21SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8SA27.2 #16Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10SA75.8 #7Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27SA7.0 #1| MIL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.