Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 21, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Lakers
IND	This season	LAL
2-5	Record	5-2
3-4	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 123–112 · win probability LAL 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

IND 0, LAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs IND defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, LAL 37.2. Allowed: IND 32.1, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

IND offense vs LAL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, LAL 67.4%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: IND 14.9%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ PHX	L108–123LO
Dec 26	@ UTAH	L122–131LO
Dec 27	@ DEN	L120–135LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs DEN	W127–125WO
Dec 25	vs PHI	W119–115WU
Dec 27	vs MEM	W120–114WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

IND 3–8 LALLAL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 4 meetings · IND 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	LAL 137 @ IND 130	IND +8.5	IND W
Mar 6, 2025-26	IND 117 @ LAL 128	LAL -9.5	LAL W
Mar 26, 2024-25	LAL 120 @ IND 119	IND -0.5	LAL W
Feb 8, 2024-25	IND 117 @ LAL 124	LAL +4.5	LAL W
Mar 29, 2023-24	LAL 90 @ IND 109	IND -3.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Lakers 2, even 2

PacersBetterLakers

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

LALSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

PacersBetterLakers

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

LALBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

LAL6.7 #3

IND		LAL
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.18 #2
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
34.1 #18	3-point %	38.9 #4
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
28.0 #7	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
6.9 #27	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Lakers