FedExForum · at Grizzlies
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 6-0 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MEM 122–112 · win probability MEM 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
MIL 0, MEM 7 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
MEMBigMEM offense vs MIL defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigThree-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMBigMIL offense vs MEM defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigRecent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
MEMSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, MEM 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmallHome court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, MEM 75.0%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, MEM 25.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, MEM 31.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -9.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.2
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 111.8 · MEM 121.5
Win probability
MEM 76%
1st half
Spread
MEM -5.3
Total
116.6
Projected score
MIL 55.7 · MEM 61
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIL 2–8 MEMMEM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL 2-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ MIL 131 | MIL -7.5 | MIL W |
| Dec 26, 2025-26 | MIL 104 @ MEM 125 | MEM -5.5 | MEM W |
| Feb 2, 2024-25 | MEM 132 @ MIL 119 | MIL -3.5 | MEM W |
| Oct 31, 2024-25 | MIL 99 @ MEM 122 | MEM +6.5 | MEM W |
| Apr 3, 2023-24 | MEM 111 @ MIL 101 | MIL -12.5 | MEM W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 1, Grizzlies 4, even 0
BucksBetterGrizzlies
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
→MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
←MILSmall
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
→MEMBig
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
→MEMBig
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
BucksBetterGrizzlies
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
→MEMBig
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→MEMBig
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
←MILBig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17MEM121.2 #1Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20MEM1.16 #4Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4MEM103.6 #13Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21MEM55.9 #53-point %
MIL33.9 #21MEM41.7 #13-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8MEM42.1 #19Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25MEM25.3 #22Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18MEM15.4 #16Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8MEM30.6 #5Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20MEM27.0 #13Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28MEM106.0 #3Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28MEM1.03 #2Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24MEM49.2 #3Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14MEM30.0 #3Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30MEM15.7 #15Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10MEM75.0 #9Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30MEM6.3 #28Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27MEM5.2 #11| MIL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 121.2 #1 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.16 #4 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 103.6 #13 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 55.9 #5 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 41.7 #1 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #19 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 25.3 #22 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 15.4 #16 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.6 #5 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 27.0 #13 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 106.0 #3 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.03 #2 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 49.2 #3 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.0 #3 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #15 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.0 #9 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 6.3 #28 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 5.2 #11 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.