Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Rockets
MIL	This season	HOU
1-5	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	6-1
5-1	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 124–105 · win probability HOU 91%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

MIL 0, HOU 8 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

MIL offense vs HOU defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

HOU offense vs MIL defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: MIL 29.7, HOU 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, HOU 15.7%

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, HOU 73.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: MIL away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs PHX	W108–105WU
Dec 20	vs GS	L113–120LO
Dec 21	@ SA	L95–127LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ MEM	W132–101WO
Dec 20	@ TOR	W113–99WU
Dec 23	@ PHI	W113–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

MIL 5–6 HOUHOU leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings · MIL 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	HOU 132 @ MIL 100	MIL +8.5	HOU W
Apr 1, 2025-26	MIL 113 @ HOU 119	HOU -19.5	MIL W
Nov 9, 2025-26	HOU 122 @ MIL 115	MIL +3.5	HOU W
Feb 25, 2024-25	MIL 97 @ HOU 100	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Nov 18, 2024-25	HOU 100 @ MIL 101	MIL -3.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Rockets 5, even 0

BucksBetterRockets

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

HOUBig

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

HOUBig

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

HOUSmall

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

HOUBig

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

HOUSmall

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

BucksBetterRockets

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

HOU5.9 #8

MIL		HOU
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.20 #1
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
33.9 #21	3-point %	39.0 #3
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
26.0 #20	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Rockets