Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Timberwolves
LAL	This season	MIN
5-2	Record	4-3
4-3	ATS	6-1
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 120–113 · win probability MIN 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

LAL 2, MIN 4 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

MIN offense vs LAL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, MIN 26.1. Allowed: LAL 30.7, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 42.8% of their shots

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

LALSmall

LAL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, MIN 15.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ MIN	W120–106WU
Dec 19	@ DEN	W127–125WO
Dec 21	vs IND	W137–130LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs LAL	L106–120LU
Dec 21	vs PHX	W116–104WU
Dec 23	@ MIL	W139–106WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

LAL 10–14 MINMIN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 3 meetings · LAL 10-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	MIN 106 @ LAL 120	LAL +2.5	LAL W
Oct 29, 2025-26	LAL 116 @ MIN 115	MIN -7.5	LAL W
Oct 24, 2025-26	MIN 110 @ LAL 128	LAL +1.5	LAL W
Apr 30, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ LAL 96	LAL -5.5	MIN W
Apr 27, 2024-25	LAL 113 @ MIN 116	MIN -2.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1

LakersBetterTimberwolves

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

MINSmall

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

LakersBetterTimberwolves

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Even

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

MIN4.3 #20

LAL		MIN
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.13 #8
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
38.9 #4	3-point %	37.6 #6
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
23.4 #27	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
10.4 #4	Steals per game	9.0 #13
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Timberwolves