Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 19, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Nuggets
LAL	This season	DEN
5-2	Record	3-2
4-3	ATS	2-3
4-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 119–118 · win probability DEN 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

LAL 2, DEN 4 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

DEN offense vs LAL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, DEN 31.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 45.7% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	vs IND	W137–130LO
Dec 23	vs DEN	W127–125WO
Dec 25	vs PHI	W119–115WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ LAC	L114–115LO
Dec 23	@ LAL	L125–127LO
Dec 25	@ GS	L114–134LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

LAL 8–18 DENDEN leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · LAL 13-12-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ LAL 127	LAL +1.5	LAL W
Mar 5, 2025-26	LAL 113 @ DEN 120	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Jan 20, 2025-26	LAL 115 @ DEN 107	DEN +3.5	LAL W
Mar 19, 2024-25	DEN 108 @ LAL 120	LAL -5.5	LAL W
Mar 14, 2024-25	LAL 126 @ DEN 131	DEN -15.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 1, Nuggets 3, even 1

LakersBetterNuggets

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

DENSmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

LakersBetterNuggets

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

DENSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

DEN4.4 #18

LAL		DEN
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.13 #9
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
38.9 #4	3-point %	37.4 #7
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
23.4 #27	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
10.4 #4	Steals per game	10.2 #5
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Nuggets