New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Kings
NO	This season	SAC
2-4	Record	0-6
4-2	ATS	1-5
4-2	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 123–116 · win probability NO 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 6, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

NO offense vs SAC defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

NOBig

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.0% of their shots

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, SAC 26.4. Allowed: NO 30.6, SAC 31.2

NOBig

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, SAC 73.7%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, NO 0-2 away

Even

SAC offense vs NO defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: NO 16.3%, SAC 14.6%

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NO away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs LAL	L101–110LU
Dec 13	@ SAC	W132–120WO
Dec 14	@ LAL	L101–110LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ PHX	L103–114LU
Dec 13	vs NO	L120–132LO
Dec 16	@ OKC	L99–113WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

NO 13–8 SACNO leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · NO 15-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 29, 2026-27	SAC 120 @ NO 132	NO -6.5	NO W
Apr 3, 2025-26	NO 113 @ SAC 117	SAC +6.5	SAC W
Mar 5, 2025-26	NO 133 @ SAC 123	SAC +6.5	NO W
Feb 9, 2025-26	SAC 94 @ NO 120	NO -9.5	NO W
Feb 13, 2024-25	SAC 133 @ NO 140	NO +7.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 4, Kings 0, even 1

PelicansBetterKings

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

NOBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

Even

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

NOBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

PelicansBetterKings

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

NOBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

SACSmall

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

SAC2.3 #30

NO		SAC
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.03 #28
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
31.2 #25	3-point %	30.4 #27
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
25.5 #21	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
13.7 #1	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Kings

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Kings

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Kings