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NBA · Sun, Dec 13

Pelicans @ Kings

Golden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game
#20NOPelicans
@
#30SACKings
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonSAC
3-4Record1-6
5-2ATS2-5
5-2O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 122–117 · win probability NO 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 238.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 6, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far
NOBig
NO offense vs SAC defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 27th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 34.4, SAC 25.4. Allowed: NO 30.5, SAC 33.0
NOBig
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +3.2; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -13.2
NOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.0 and allows 55.3; SAC 52.8 and allows 58.5
NOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 15.9%, SAC 16.5%. Forced: NO 16.1%, SAC 14.8%
NOSmall
Three-pointers
NO hits 32.4% and allows 32.7%; SAC hits 32.8% and allows 36.9%. Threes are 33.4% and 39.9% of their shots
SACSmall
Home court
SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, NO 1-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.8%, SAC 23.6%. Defensive: NO 76.2%, SAC 74.1%
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), SAC 105.0 (8th). Faster games mean more points
Even
SAC offense vs NO defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNO -5.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model238.9
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 122 · SAC 116.9
Win probability
NO 64%
1st half
Spread
NO -3.0
Total
119.3
Projected score
NO 61.1 · SAC 58.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model numbers › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 4, Kings 0, even 1
PelicansBetterKings
G J. Fears12.9 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 23
Even
G D. Acuff26.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.3 ast Score 9
F T. Murphy14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 65
NOSmall
G Z. LaVine23.4 pts · 3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 43
F Z. Williamson21.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 83
NOBig
F D. Sabonis15 pts · 14.6 reb · 6.9 ast Score 30
F H. Jones7.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 79
NOSmall
F D. Hunter12.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
F K. Matkovic10 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27
NOSmall
F P. Achiuwa11.6 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
PelicansBetterKings
NO offense7th of 30 · +2.8
NOBig
SAC defense28th of 30 · -6.2
NO defense25th of 30 · -4.9
Even
SAC offense26th of 30 · -2.8
Backcourt-3.0 · 1 player
NOBig
Backcourt-7.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt+18.1 · 4 players
NOBig
Frontcourt-6.8 · 3 players
Bench-12.7 · 5 players
Even
Bench-13.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
J. Fears27 minB. Mathurin17 minA. Johnson10 minB. McGowens8 min
Forwards
T. Murphy33 minZ. Williamson32 minH. Jones22 minK. Matkovic18 minJ. Reese31 minS. Bey26 min
Centers
D. Queen24 minD. Jordan17 min
Out
D. MurrayOutJ. PooleOutY. MissiOut
Kings
Guards
D. Acuff37 minZ. LaVine33 minE. Sharp18 minM. Monk15 minD. Plowden12 minN. Clifford7 min
Forwards
D. Sabonis36 minD. Hunter30 minP. Achiuwa29 minJ. Mogbo17 minL. Black17 minA. Karaban10 min
Out
K. MurrayOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
NOSAC
Scoring
121.9Points per game110.1
1.12Points per possession1.05
108.0Pace (possessions)105.0
Shooting
55.0Effective FG%52.8
32.43-point %32.8
33.43-point attempt rate39.9
34.4Free throw rate25.4
Possessions
15.9Turnover rate16.5
24.8Offensive rebound rate23.6
25.7Assists per game24.6
Defense
120.1Points allowed124.3
1.12Points allowed per possession1.18
55.3Opponent effective FG%58.5
32.7Opponent 3-point %36.9
16.1Turnovers forced14.8
76.2Defensive rebound rate74.1
12.9Steals per game8.1
4.6Blocks per game2.6
NOSAC
Scoring
121.9 #3Points per game110.1 #22
1.12 #11Points per possession1.05 #25
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)105.0 #8
Shooting
55.0 #10Effective FG%52.8 #20
32.4 #253-point %32.8 #24
33.4 #303-point attempt rate39.9 #22
34.4 #3Free throw rate25.4 #24
Possessions
15.9 #21Turnover rate16.5 #24
24.8 #24Offensive rebound rate23.6 #26
25.7 #20Assists per game24.6 #27
Defense
120.1 #25Points allowed124.3 #29
1.12 #19Points allowed per possession1.18 #29
55.3 #24Opponent effective FG%58.5 #30
32.7 #10Opponent 3-point %36.9 #22
16.1 #11Turnovers forced14.8 #19
76.2 #6Defensive rebound rate74.1 #10
12.9 #1Steals per game8.1 #19
4.6 #19Blocks per game2.6 #30
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

3-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Grizzlies135–134
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141

A week or more of rest.

Kings

1-6 overall · 1-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Mavericks115–100
  • L@ Grizzlies105–136
  • L@ Pelicans120–132
  • L@ Spurs103–130
  • Lvs Grizzlies112–123

A week or more of rest.