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NBA · Mon, Dec 14

Pelicans @ Lakers

crypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game
#22NOPelicans
@
#10LALLakers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonLAL
2-4Record5-2
4-2ATS4-3
4-2O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 123–115 · win probability LAL 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 238.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

NO 2, LAL 3 · 2026-27 so far
LALBig
LAL offense vs NO defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, LAL 67.4%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points
LALSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7
LALSmall
Home court
LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, NO 0-2 away
NOSmall
NO offense vs LAL defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4
Even
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 32.8% and 45.7% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: NO 16.3%, LAL 17.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, LAL 37.2. Allowed: NO 30.6, LAL 30.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelLAL -7.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model238.1
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 115.2 · LAL 122.9
Win probability
LAL 71%
1st half
Spread
LAL -4.2
Total
118.9
Projected score
NO 57.3 · LAL 61.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 1, Lakers 2, even 2
PelicansBetterLakers
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45
LALBig
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
LALBig
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
NOSmall
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
Even
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
Even
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
PelicansBetterLakers
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Even
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
LALBig
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
LALBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
NOBig
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
LALBig
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NOLAL
Scoring
119.7 #7Points per game120.3 #5
1.10 #15Points per possession1.18 #2
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)102.9 #17
Shooting
55.1 #9Effective FG%60.1 #1
31.2 #253-point %38.9 #4
32.8 #303-point attempt rate45.7 #9
35.3 #4Free throw rate37.2 #2
Possessions
17.4 #26Turnover rate18.3 #28
24.3 #25Offensive rebound rate26.8 #19
25.5 #21Assists per game23.4 #27
Defense
117.8 #24Points allowed115.0 #17
1.09 #16Points allowed per possession1.11 #19
54.2 #21Opponent effective FG%53.7 #17
30.5 #5Opponent 3-point %36.7 #22
16.3 #10Turnovers forced17.8 #4
76.4 #6Defensive rebound rate67.4 #29
13.7 #1Steals per game10.4 #4
4.8 #16Blocks per game6.7 #3
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.