Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 14, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Jazz
MIN	This season	UTAH
4-3	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 123–110 · win probability MIN 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 7, UTAH 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 42.8% and 41.7% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, UTAH 13.3%

MINBig

UTAH offense vs MIN defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, UTAH 77.1%

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: MIN 28.9, UTAH 33.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: MIN away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	vs LAL	L106–120LU
Dec 18	vs LAL	L106–120LU
Dec 21	vs PHX	W116–104WU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	@ CHI	L126–128WO
Dec 18	@ BOS	L119–129LO
Dec 20	@ CLE	L113–122WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

MIN 13–7 UTAHMIN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · MIN 12-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 18, 2025-26	UTAH 111 @ MIN 147	MIN -12.5	MIN W
Jan 20, 2025-26	MIN 122 @ UTAH 127	UTAH +12.5	UTAH W
Nov 10, 2025-26	MIN 120 @ UTAH 113	UTAH +7.5	UTAH W
Nov 7, 2025-26	UTAH 97 @ MIN 137	MIN -12.5	MIN W
Apr 13, 2024-25	UTAH 105 @ MIN 116	MIN -23.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Jazz 0, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterJazz

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINSmall

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

TimberwolvesBetterJazz

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

UTAHSmall

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

UTAH6.5 #5

MIN		UTAH
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.05 #25
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
37.6 #6	3-point %	32.6 #23
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
27.3 #11	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
9.0 #13	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Jazz

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Jazz

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Jazz