Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 14, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Suns
ATL	This season	PHX
3-4	Record	1-3
3-4	ATS	0-4
4-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 116–115 · win probability ATL 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 3, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 44.7% and 45.1% of their shots

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 4: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, PHX 22.8. Allowed: ATL 32.1, PHX 31.1

Even

PHX offense vs ATL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 17	@ DEN	W110–87WU
Dec 19	vs ORL	W132–125WO
Dec 20	vs OKC	L129–140WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	@ DET	W114–96WU
Dec 18	@ MIL	L105–108LU
Dec 20	@ MEM	W131–105WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 7–3 PHXATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · ATL 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	PHX 103 @ ATL 110	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Nov 16, 2025-26	ATL 124 @ PHX 122	PHX -1.5	ATL W
Jan 14, 2024-25	PHX 117 @ ATL 122	ATL +2.5	ATL W
Jan 9, 2024-25	ATL 115 @ PHX 123	PHX -5.5	PHX W
Mar 21, 2023-24	ATL 115 @ PHX 128	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Suns 1, even 1

HawksBetterSuns

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ATLBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

HawksBetterSuns

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

ATLBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

ATL

PHX

Scoring

116.3Points per game112.0

1.10Points per possession1.12

105.6Pace (possessions)101.3

Shooting

52.6Effective FG%54.4

32.83-point %35.0

44.73-point attempt rate45.1

23.4Free throw rate22.8

Possessions

13.8Turnover rate15.2

27.1Offensive rebound rate28.3

30.7Assists per game27.5

Defense

115.4Points allowed124.5

1.10Points allowed per possession1.21

54.5Opponent effective FG%58.7

31.9Opponent 3-point %43.9

18.3Turnovers forced17.1

70.9Defensive rebound rate65.1

9.4Steals per game9.0

3.7Blocks per game5.3

ATL		PHX
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.12 #12
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
32.8 #22	3-point %	35.0 #16
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
30.7 #1	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.4 #8	Steals per game	9.0 #15
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Suns

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Suns

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Suns