Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Pistons
PHX	This season	DET
1-3	Record	5-1
0-4	ATS	5-1
3-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–106 · win probability DET 77%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

PHX 0, DET 8 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

PHX offense vs DET defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 45.1% and 43.3% of their shots

DETBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

DETBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, DET 28.9. Allowed: PHX 31.1, DET 28.1

DETSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, DET 72.8%

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, PHX 0-2 away

DETSmall

DET offense vs PHX defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, DET 15.6%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, DET 17.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: PHX away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ MIL	L105–108LU
Dec 20	@ MEM	W131–105WO
Dec 21	@ MIN	L104–116LU

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs CLE	L94–125LO
Dec 20	@ BOS	W121–113WO
Dec 22	@ OKC	L110–114WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 8–2 DETPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 29, 2025-26	DET 96 @ PHX 114	PHX +3.5	PHX W
Jan 15, 2025-26	PHX 105 @ DET 108	DET -7.5	PHX W
Jan 18, 2024-25	PHX 125 @ DET 121	DET -0.5	PHX W
Dec 21, 2024-25	DET 133 @ PHX 125	PHX -5.5	DET W
Feb 14, 2023-24	DET 100 @ PHX 116	PHX -13.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Pistons 3, even 1

SunsBetterPistons

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

DETBig

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

DETBig

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

DETBig

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

SunsBetterPistons

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

Even

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

DET6.7 #4

PHX		DET
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.09 #18
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
35.0 #16	3-point %	36.3 #9
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
27.5 #8	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.0 #12
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Pistons

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Pistons