LA Clippers at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Hornets
LAC	This season	CHA
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 108–107 · win probability CHA 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 214.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

LAC 4, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

LAC offense vs CHA defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

LACBig

CHA offense vs LAC defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 42.3% and 50.8% of their shots

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, CHA 18.9. Allowed: LAC 24.7, CHA 28.4

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, CHA 14.5%

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ MIA	L123–140LO
Dec 20	vs IND	W114–113LU
Dec 21	vs DEN	W115–114WO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs OKC	W124–97WU
Dec 19	vs POR	W103–101LU
Dec 21	vs PHI	L104–109LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 10–0 CHALAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 10 meetings · LAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 12, 2025-26	CHA 109 @ LAC 117	LAC -4.5	LAC W
Nov 22, 2025-26	LAC 131 @ CHA 116	CHA -1.5	LAC W
Mar 16, 2024-25	CHA 88 @ LAC 123	LAC -13.5	LAC W
Jan 31, 2024-25	LAC 112 @ CHA 104	CHA +13.5	CHA W
Mar 31, 2023-24	LAC 130 @ CHA 118	CHA +14.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Hornets 2, even 2

ClippersBetterHornets

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

Even

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

CHABig

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

Even

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

ClippersBetterHornets

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

CHABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

CHABig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

CHA5.0 #15

LAC		CHA
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.04 #27	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
38.6 #5	3-point %	29.6 #28
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
24.3 #26	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
11.3 #3	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Hornets

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Hornets