Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Celtics
WSH	This season	BOS
3-3	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 120–105 · win probability BOS 84%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

WSH 1, BOS 6 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

WSH offense vs BOS defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, BOS 32.3. Allowed: WSH 21.8, BOS 31.7

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, BOS 17.8%

BOSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs WSH defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 37.6% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs NY	L113–145LO
Dec 20	@ BKN	L115–121LO
Dec 22	vs TOR	L102–112LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs UTAH	W129–119WO
Dec 20	vs DET	L113–121LO
Dec 23	vs POR	W102–94LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

WSH 3–15 BOSBOS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 11 meetings · WSH 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	WSH 100 @ BOS 111	BOS -20.5	WSH W
Dec 4, 2025-26	BOS 146 @ WSH 101	WSH +10.5	BOS W
Nov 5, 2025-26	WSH 107 @ BOS 136	BOS -13.5	BOS W
Apr 6, 2024-25	WSH 90 @ BOS 124	BOS -19.5	BOS W
Dec 15, 2024-25	BOS 112 @ WSH 98	WSH +17.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Celtics 3, even 2

WizardsBetterCeltics

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

BOSSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

WizardsBetterCeltics

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

BOSSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

BOS4.0 #25

WSH		BOS
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.15 #6
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
29.3 #29	3-point %	35.5 #10
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
24.5 #24	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Celtics