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NBA · Wed, Dec 16

Warriors @ Pacers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers
#13GSWarriors
@
#25INDPacers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonIND
4-3Record2-5
5-2ATS3-4
4-3O/U3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 119–114 · win probability GS 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 6, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
GS offense vs IND defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
IND offense vs GS defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 47.1% and 43.1% of their shots
GSBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, IND 72.7%
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Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, IND 31.2. Allowed: GS 27.3, IND 32.1
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points
INDSmall
Home court
IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, IND 14.8%. Forced: GS 17.6%, IND 14.9%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -5.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.1
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 119.1 · IND 114.1
Win probability
GS 64%
1st half
Spread
GS -3.0
Total
116.6
Projected score
GS 59.8 · IND 56.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 2, Pacers 1, even 2
WarriorsBetterPacers
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
Even
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSSmall
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
INDBig
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSBig
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
WarriorsBetterPacers
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
GSSmall
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
INDBig
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
GSBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSIND
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game112.9 #18
1.17 #3Points per possession1.10 #17
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)103.1 #15
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%53.9 #14
40.0 #23-point %34.1 #18
47.1 #53-point attempt rate43.1 #15
28.8 #15Free throw rate31.2 #12
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate14.8 #10
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate23.1 #27
27.4 #10Assists per game28.0 #7
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed116.7 #23
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.13 #23
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%53.9 #19
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %35.9 #20
17.6 #5Turnovers forced14.9 #19
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate72.7 #16
9.1 #11Steals per game6.9 #27
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.0 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.