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NBA · Thu, Dec 17

Trail Blazers @ Pacers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#25INDPacers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonIND
4-1Record2-5
3-2ATS3-4
2-3O/U3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–111 · win probability POR 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 6, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
POR offense vs IND defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
PORBig
IND offense vs POR defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, IND 72.7%
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, IND 31.2. Allowed: POR 27.8, IND 32.1
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9
PORSmall
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 51.5% and 43.1% of their shots
INDSmall
Home court
IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, IND 14.8%. Forced: POR 14.8%, IND 14.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -8.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.8
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 119.3 · IND 110.5
Win probability
POR 74%
1st half
Spread
POR -5.2
Total
115.1
Projected score
POR 60.1 · IND 55
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Pacers 1, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterPacers
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORSmall
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
Even
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
PORSmall
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
INDSmall
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PORBig
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
Trail BlazersBetterPacers
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
PORBig
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
PORBig
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
PORSmall
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
PORBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORIND
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game112.9 #18
1.16 #5Points per possession1.10 #17
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)103.1 #15
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%53.9 #14
35.3 #123-point %34.1 #18
51.5 #13-point attempt rate43.1 #15
35.9 #3Free throw rate31.2 #12
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate14.8 #10
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate23.1 #27
26.2 #17Assists per game28.0 #7
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed116.7 #23
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.13 #23
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%53.9 #19
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %35.9 #20
14.8 #20Turnovers forced14.9 #19
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate72.7 #16
8.6 #18Steals per game6.9 #27
4.2 #21Blocks per game4.0 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.