Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 17, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Nuggets
ATL	This season	DEN
3-4	Record	3-2
3-4	ATS	2-3
4-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 119–116 · win probability DEN 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

ATL 2, DEN 4 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, DEN 31.3. Allowed: ATL 32.1, DEN 21.5

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, DEN 15.9%

ATLBig

ATL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

DEN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 44.7% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	vs ORL	W132–125WO
Dec 20	vs OKC	L129–140WO
Dec 23	vs DET	W130–129WO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	vs LAL	L125–127LO
Dec 21	@ LAC	L114–115LO
Dec 23	@ LAL	L125–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 2–8 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 9, 2025-26	ATL 110 @ DEN 87	DEN +3.5	ATL W
Dec 5, 2025-26	DEN 134 @ ATL 133	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Jan 1, 2024-25	ATL 120 @ DEN 139	DEN -8.5	DEN W
Dec 8, 2024-25	DEN 141 @ ATL 111	ATL -0.5	DEN W
Apr 6, 2023-24	ATL 110 @ DEN 142	DEN -10.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 2, Nuggets 3, even 0

HawksBetterNuggets

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

DENSmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

HawksBetterNuggets

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

DENSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

DEN4.4 #18

ATL		DEN
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.13 #9
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
32.8 #22	3-point %	37.4 #7
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
30.7 #1	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.4 #8	Steals per game	10.2 #5
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Nuggets