Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Mavericks
BOS	This season	DAL
5-1	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 114–111 · win probability BOS 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 3, DAL 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, DAL 14.5%

BOSBig

DAL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: BOS 31.7, DAL 27.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.1% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6

Even

BOS offense vs DAL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, DAL 69.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs CHA	W113–102WU
Dec 13	@ BKN	W125–124LO
Dec 14	vs WSH	W111–100LU

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs ORL	L127–138LO
Dec 14	vs MIL	L99–123LU
Dec 16	@ BKN	W123–114WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 15 since 2021-22

BOS 11–4 DALBOS leads · 15 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 2 meetings · BOS 12-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	DAL 100 @ BOS 120	BOS -15.5	BOS W
Feb 3, 2025-26	BOS 110 @ DAL 100	DAL +7.5	BOS W
Feb 6, 2024-25	DAL 127 @ BOS 120	BOS -12.5	DAL W
Jan 25, 2024-25	BOS 122 @ DAL 107	DAL +8.5	BOS W
Jun 17, 2023-24	DAL 88 @ BOS 106	BOS -6.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 3, Mavericks 0, even 2

CelticsBetterMavericks

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

CelticsBetterMavericks

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

DAL114.3 #14

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

DAL1.12 #11

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

DAL102.8 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

DAL56.9 #2

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

DAL35.1 #14

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

DAL42.1 #18

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

DAL21.4 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

DAL16.8 #23

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

DAL27.8 #13

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

DAL27.0 #12

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

DAL111.8 #14

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

DAL1.08 #13

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

DAL51.3 #9

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

DAL29.7 #2

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

DAL14.5 #24

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

DAL69.4 #25

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

DAL8.8 #16

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

DAL6.8 #2

BOS		DAL
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	114.3 #14
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.12 #11
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	102.8 #18
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	56.9 #2
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.1 #14
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #18
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	21.4 #29
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	16.8 #23
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #13
28.0 #6	Assists per game	27.0 #12
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	111.8 #14
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #13
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #9
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #2
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.5 #24
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #25
9.2 #9	Steals per game	8.8 #16
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	6.8 #2

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Mavericks

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Mavericks

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Mavericks