American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ORL | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 117–112 · win probability DAL 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
ORL 1, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far
DALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, DAL 69.4%
ORLSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, DAL 21.4. Allowed: ORL 29.8, DAL 27.2
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmallORL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away
DALSmallThree-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 46.5% and 42.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, DAL 14.5%
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
DAL offense vs ORL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -4.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.2
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 112.4 · DAL 116.8
Win probability
DAL 62%
1st half
Spread
DAL -2.3
Total
114.7
Projected score
ORL 56.2 · DAL 58.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ORL 4–6 DALDAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 4-5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025-26 | ORL 138 @ DAL 127 | DAL +6.5 | ORL W |
| Mar 5, 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ ORL 115 | ORL -7.5 | DAL W |
| Mar 27, 2024-25 | DAL 101 @ ORL 92 | ORL -6.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 3, 2024-25 | ORL 85 @ DAL 108 | DAL -6.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 29, 2023-24 | ORL 129 @ DAL 131 | DAL -3.5 | ORL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks has the better starters
Position by position: Magic 2, Mavericks 3, even 0
MagicBetterMavericks
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
←ORLBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
→DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
←ORLBig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
→DALSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
→DALSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
MagicBetterMavericks
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
→DALSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
=Even
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
←ORLBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
→DALSmall
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ORL107.7 #26DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
ORL1.07 #21DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
ORL101.9 #22DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
ORL53.4 #15DAL56.9 #23-point %
ORL35.4 #11DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
ORL46.5 #6DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
ORL31.7 #9DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
ORL17.0 #24DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
ORL23.4 #26DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
ORL26.3 #16DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
ORL116.7 #22DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
ORL1.13 #24DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
ORL53.0 #13DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
ORL34.6 #13DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
ORL13.6 #26DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
ORL68.9 #26DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
ORL7.0 #26DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
ORL4.2 #23DAL6.8 #2| ORL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 107.7 #26 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.07 #21 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 101.9 #22 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.4 #15 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 35.4 #11 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 46.5 #6 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 31.7 #9 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #24 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 23.4 #26 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 26.3 #16 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #22 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.13 #24 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 53.0 #13 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 34.6 #13 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 13.6 #26 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 68.9 #26 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 7.0 #26 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 4.2 #23 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.