Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and 76ers
ORL	This season	PHI
2-4	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 113–109 · win probability PHI 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

ORL 1, PHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

ORL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

PHI offense vs ORL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 46.5% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, PHI 28.7. Allowed: ORL 29.8, PHI 28.5

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, PHI 70.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs PHI	L97–109LU
Dec 16	vs CLE	L131–136WO
Dec 18	@ BKN	W118–98WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ ORL	W109–97WU
Dec 17	vs DAL	W123–108WU
Dec 21	@ CHA	W109–104WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

ORL 5–14 PHIPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 6-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 15, 2025-26	ORL 97 @ PHI 109	PHI -1.5	PHI W
Jan 9, 2025-26	PHI 103 @ ORL 91	ORL +3.5	PHI W
Nov 25, 2025-26	ORL 144 @ PHI 103	PHI +4.5	ORL W
Oct 27, 2025-26	ORL 124 @ PHI 136	PHI +6.5	PHI W
Jan 12, 2024-25	PHI 99 @ ORL 104	ORL -1.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, 76ers 3, even 2

MagicBetter76ers

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

PHISmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

MagicBetter76ers

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ORLSmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

PHI5.0 #14

ORL		PHI
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
35.4 #11	3-point %	34.0 #20
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
26.3 #16	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

76ers