Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 8:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Cavaliers
GS	This season	CLE
4-3	Record	4-2
5-2	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 120–115 · win probability CLE 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

GS 2, CLE 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

CLE offense vs GS defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

GS offense vs CLE defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, CLE 28.9. Allowed: GS 27.3, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, GS 2-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, CLE 73.9%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: GS 17.6%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 47.1% and 43.6% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ MEM	L108–111LU
Dec 16	@ IND	W114–83WU
Dec 18	@ TOR	L127–145LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs SA	W113–101WU
Dec 16	@ ORL	W136–131LO
Dec 18	@ DET	W125–94WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

GS 5–5 CLESeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2025-26	CLE 118 @ GS 111	GS +10.5	GS W
Dec 6, 2025-26	GS 99 @ CLE 94	CLE -8.5	GS W
Dec 30, 2024-25	CLE 113 @ GS 95	GS +3.5	CLE W
Nov 8, 2024-25	GS 117 @ CLE 136	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Nov 11, 2023-24	CLE 118 @ GS 110	GS -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 2, Cavaliers 3, even 0

WarriorsBetterCavaliers

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

GSSmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

CLESmall

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

CLESmall

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

WarriorsBetterCavaliers

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSBig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSSmall

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

CLE6.3 #6

GS		CLE
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
40.0 #2	3-point %	37.0 #8
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
27.4 #10	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
9.1 #11	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Cavaliers