Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Spurs
BOS	This season	SA
5-1	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 113–109 · win probability SA 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

BOS 2, SA 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 39.0% of their shots

SASmall

BOS offense vs SA defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, SA 75.8%

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, SA 24.5. Allowed: BOS 31.7, SA 21.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, SA 13.1%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, SA 15.7%

Even

SA offense vs BOS defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: BOS away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ DAL	W120–100WU
Dec 2	vs CHA	W113–102WU
Dec 13	@ BKN	W125–124LO

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ MIL	W127–95WU
Dec 3	vs TOR	W110–107LU
Dec 13	vs LAC	W118–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 6–4 SABOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · BOS 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	BOS 116 @ SA 125	SA -3.5	SA W
Jan 10, 2025-26	SA 100 @ BOS 95	BOS +1.5	SA W
Mar 29, 2024-25	BOS 121 @ SA 111	SA +12.5	SA W
Feb 12, 2024-25	SA 103 @ BOS 116	BOS -7.5	BOS W
Jan 17, 2023-24	SA 98 @ BOS 117	BOS -14.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Celtics 2, Spurs 2, even 1

CelticsBetterSpurs

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSSmall

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

G H. Gonzalez3.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

SASmall

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSSmall

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SABig

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

CelticsBetterSpurs

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

SASmall

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+17.7 · 3 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+16.3 · 2 players

SASmall

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench+33.5 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minH. Gonzalez12 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

P. GeorgeOutM. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

BOS

Scoring

118.7Points per game117.3

1.15Points per possession1.12

103.0Pace (possessions)104.3

Shooting

55.0Effective FG%53.3

35.53-point %34.9

45.93-point attempt rate39.0

32.3Free throw rate24.5

Possessions

14.9Turnover rate13.1

28.3Offensive rebound rate27.2

28.0Assists per game27.5

Defense

109.2Points allowed110.2

1.06Points allowed per possession1.06

51.3Opponent effective FG%52.1

33.8Opponent 3-point %37.3

17.8Turnovers forced15.7

68.4Defensive rebound rate75.8

9.2Steals per game9.2

4.0Blocks per game7.0

BOS		SA
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.12 #10
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
35.5 #10	3-point %	34.9 #17
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
28.0 #6	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.2 #10
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Spurs

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Spurs