Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Kings
BOS	This season	SAC
5-1	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 122–106 · win probability BOS 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 7, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

SAC offense vs BOS defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.0% of their shots

BOSBig

BOS offense vs SAC defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, SAC 14.6%

BOSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, SAC 26.4. Allowed: BOS 31.7, SAC 31.2

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ GS	W120–99WO
Nov 24	@ WSH	W111–100LU
Nov 27	vs ATL	L102–112LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs SA	L103–130LO
Nov 25	@ GS	W124–118WO
Nov 29	vs MIN	L103–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 9–1 SACBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2025-26	SAC 93 @ BOS 112	BOS -11.5	BOS W
Jan 1, 2025-26	BOS 120 @ SAC 106	SAC +10.5	BOS W
Mar 24, 2024-25	BOS 113 @ SAC 95	SAC +4.5	BOS W
Jan 10, 2024-25	SAC 114 @ BOS 97	BOS -12.5	SAC W
Apr 5, 2023-24	SAC 100 @ BOS 101	BOS -9.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 5, Kings 0, even 0

CelticsBetterKings

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

CelticsBetterKings

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

SAC2.3 #30

BOS		SAC
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.03 #28
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.5 #10	3-point %	30.4 #27
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
28.0 #6	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.2 #9	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Kings

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Kings

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Kings