Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Celtics
ATL	This season	BOS
3-4	Record	5-1
3-4	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–109 · win probability BOS 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

ATL 1, BOS 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, BOS 32.3. Allowed: ATL 32.1, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, ATL 2-2 away

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, BOS 17.8%

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 44.7% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

BOS offense vs ATL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ATL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ NY	L89–140LO
Dec 1	@ MIA	L117–129LO
Dec 3	vs IND	L124–129LO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ SA	L116–125LO
Nov 30	@ DAL	W120–100WU
Dec 2	vs CHA	W113–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

ATL 10–14 BOSBOS leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · ATL 11-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	BOS 102 @ ATL 112	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Mar 27, 2025-26	ATL 102 @ BOS 109	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Jan 28, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ BOS 106	BOS -5.5	ATL W
Jan 17, 2025-26	BOS 132 @ ATL 106	ATL +3.5	BOS W
Jan 18, 2024-25	ATL 119 @ BOS 115	BOS -9.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 0, Celtics 3, even 2

HawksBetterCeltics

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

BOSSmall

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

BOSSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

HawksBetterCeltics

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

BOS4.0 #25

ATL		BOS
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.15 #6
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
32.8 #22	3-point %	35.5 #10
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
30.7 #1	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.4 #8	Steals per game	9.2 #9
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Celtics