Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineBOS -5.5no move

Total230.5no move

Season records: Celtics and Wizards
BOS	This season	WSH
5-1	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–108 · win probability BOS 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

BOS -5.5

no move since the open

Total

230.5

model 224.8 · Under by 5.5

Model edge

BOS by 4

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

WSH offense vs BOS defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, WSH 34.2. Allowed: BOS 31.7, WSH 21.8

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, WSH 13.3%

BOSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, WSH 68.0%

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs WSH defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	630	64%	50%	51%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-3
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-3

Venue/role: BOS away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs ATL	L102–112LU
Nov 29	@ SA	L116–125LO
Nov 30	@ DAL	W120–100WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs ORL	L131–136WO
Nov 30	@ CHA	W95–79WU
Dec 3	@ MIA	L117–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

BOS 15–3 WSHBOS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 11 meetings · BOS 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	WSH 100 @ BOS 111	BOS -20.5	WSH W
Dec 4, 2025-26	BOS 146 @ WSH 101	WSH +10.5	BOS W
Nov 5, 2025-26	WSH 107 @ BOS 136	BOS -13.5	BOS W
Apr 6, 2024-25	WSH 90 @ BOS 124	BOS -19.5	BOS W
Dec 15, 2024-25	BOS 112 @ WSH 98	WSH +17.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 3, Wizards 0, even 2

CelticsBetterWizards

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSSmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

CelticsBetterWizards

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

WSH5.3 #9

BOS		WSH
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.08 #19
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.5 #10	3-point %	29.3 #29
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
28.0 #6	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.2 #9	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Wizards

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Wizards

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Wizards