Washington Wizards at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Heat
WSH	This season	MIA
3-3	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 122–115 · win probability MIA 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

WSH 3, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs WSH defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

WSHBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 37.6% and 41.7% of their shots

MIASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, MIA 72.3%

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, MIA 27.3. Allowed: WSH 21.8, MIA 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, MIA 15.4%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

WSH offense vs MIA defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: WSH away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs CHA	W95–79WU
Dec 14	@ BOS	L100–111WU
Dec 16	@ BOS	L100–111WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs NY	L125–132WO
Dec 14	@ CHI	W134–91WU
Dec 16	@ MEM	W136–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

WSH 5–15 MIAMIA leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 4 meetings · WSH 9-10-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	MIA 140 @ WSH 117	WSH +15.5	MIA W
Apr 4, 2025-26	WSH 136 @ MIA 152	MIA -18.5	WSH W
Mar 10, 2025-26	WSH 129 @ MIA 150	MIA -15.5	MIA W
Feb 8, 2025-26	MIA 132 @ WSH 101	WSH +13.5	MIA W
Apr 13, 2024-25	WSH 119 @ MIA 118	MIA -8.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Heat 3, even 2

WizardsBetterHeat

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

MIASmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

MIASmall

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

MIASmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

WizardsBetterHeat

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

MIA5.0 #13

WSH		MIA
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.11 #14
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
29.3 #29	3-point %	34.1 #19
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
24.5 #24	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
7.2 #24	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Heat