Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Bulls
CLE	This season	CHI
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 126–115 · win probability CLE 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 5, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs CHI defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 43.6% and 47.9% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHISmall

CHI offense vs CLE defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: CLE 23.2, CHI 33.5

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs GS	W118–111LU
Dec 15	vs SA	W113–101WU
Dec 16	@ ORL	W136–131LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs HOU	W132–124WO
Dec 14	vs MIA	L91–134LU
Dec 16	vs UTAH	W128–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CLE 14–6 CHICLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	CLE 115 @ CHI 110	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Dec 19, 2025-26	CHI 136 @ CLE 125	CLE -4.5	CHI W
Dec 17, 2025-26	CLE 111 @ CHI 127	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Nov 8, 2025-26	CHI 122 @ CLE 128	CLE -8.5	CHI W
Apr 8, 2024-25	CHI 113 @ CLE 135	CLE -15.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Bulls 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterBulls

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CHISmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

CLESmall

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

CavaliersBetterBulls

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CHISmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

CHI5.0 #12

CLE		CHI
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.04 #26
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
37.0 #8	3-point %	28.1 #30
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
28.7 #4	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
7.8 #22	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Bulls

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Bulls

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Bulls