Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 13, 6:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Bulls
HOU	This season	CHI
6-1	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 125–110 · win probability HOU 86%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 7, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 47.9% of their shots

HOUBig

HOU offense vs CHI defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

CHI offense vs HOU defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, CHI 69.8%

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, CHI 14.7%

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: HOU 24.7, CHI 33.5

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs NY	W111–94WU
Dec 16	vs MIL	W132–100WO
Dec 18	@ MEM	W132–101WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs MIA	L91–134LU
Dec 16	vs UTAH	W128–126LO
Dec 18	@ SA	L114–129WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 6–4 CHIHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ CHI 132	CHI +8.5	CHI W
Jan 13, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ HOU 119	HOU -12.5	CHI W
Mar 15, 2024-25	CHI 114 @ HOU 117	HOU -8.5	CHI W
Nov 17, 2024-25	HOU 143 @ CHI 107	CHI +4.5	HOU W
Mar 21, 2023-24	CHI 117 @ HOU 127	HOU -3.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Bulls 0, even 1

RocketsBetterBulls

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

Even

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

RocketsBetterBulls

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUSmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

CHI5.0 #12

HOU		CHI
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.04 #26
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
39.0 #3	3-point %	28.1 #30
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
28.1 #5	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.7 #6	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Bulls

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Bulls

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Bulls