Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 14, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Bulls
MIA	This season	CHI
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 126–119 · win probability MIA 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 244.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 4, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs CHI defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHIBig

CHI offense vs MIA defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, CHI 14.7%

MIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

MIASmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 41.7% and 47.9% of their shots

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, MIA 1-1 away

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, CHI 38.3. Allowed: MIA 23.2, CHI 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	@ MEM	W136–120WO
Dec 18	vs LAC	W140–123WO
Dec 20	vs SAC	W130–117WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	vs UTAH	W128–126LO
Dec 18	@ SA	L114–129WU
Dec 19	@ DAL	L128–149LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

MIA 12–9 CHIMIA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · MIA 11-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	CHI 91 @ MIA 134	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Jan 31, 2025-26	CHI 125 @ MIA 118	MIA -5.5	CHI W
Jan 29, 2025-26	MIA 116 @ CHI 113	CHI +2.5	MIA W
Nov 21, 2025-26	MIA 143 @ CHI 107	CHI -2.5	MIA W
Apr 16, 2024-25	MIA 109 @ CHI 90	CHI -1.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 3, Bulls 1, even 1

HeatBetterBulls

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

CHISmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIABig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

HeatBetterBulls

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

CHI5.0 #12

MIA		CHI
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.04 #26
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
34.1 #19	3-point %	28.1 #30
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
28.8 #3	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
8.3 #19	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Bulls

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Bulls

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Bulls